<?xml version="1.1" encoding="utf-8"?>
<article xsi:noNamespaceSchemaLocation="http://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.1/xsd/JATS-journalpublishing1-mathml3.xsd" dtd-version="1.1" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">SSSD</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Scientific and Social Sustainable Development</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn>3066-8964</issn><eissn>3066-8980</eissn><publisher><publisher-name>Art and Technology</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.61369/SSSD.2025140025</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title> 基于中国火电碳清单的全国碳市场配额盈缺预测研究</title><url>https://artdesignp.com/journal/SSSD/1/14/10.61369/SSSD.2025140025</url><author>王恩军,蒋志铭,冯田丰,刘潇,郭树森,方晓露</author><pub-date pub-type="publication-year"><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>1</volume><issue>14</issue><history><date date-type="pub"><published-time>2025-09-28</published-time></date></history><abstract>基于逐机组辨识燃料类型和容量，本文升级了前期开发的全国火电碳清单，包括全国火电逐机组燃料类型、发电煤耗、厂用电率、产能参数等。基于全国碳市场21-22年第二个履约周期的免费配额发放规则，建立免费强度配额规则的情景设计模型，可以自下而上地逐机组计算碳排放量与免费配额量。基于采集的多个电厂历史逐月供电、供热数据，以国家碳达峰行动规划为依据，本研究建立了全国火电分省出力预测模型。并用火电出力预测，结合全国火电碳清单，本文研究了不同免费强度配额规则下，面向第三、四履约期的火电产业碳配额盈缺情况，提供了一种火电行业计算碳配额盈缺预期的框架。</abstract><keywords>中国碳市场,火电碳清单,发电量预测,长短期记忆网络</keywords></article-meta></front><body/><back><ref-list><ref id="B1" content-type="article"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><p>[1] 全国碳市场发展报告(2024). 生态环境部. 2024.[2]ZHANG Hongyu, ZHANG Da, GUO Siyue, et al. Impact of benchmark tightening design under output-based ETS on China's power sector. Energy, vol. 288, 2024, pp. 129832.[3]ZHANG Hongyu, ZHANG Da, ZHANG Xiliang. The role of output-based emission trading system in the decarbonization of China's power sector.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 173, 2023, pp. 113080.[4] 孙洋洋. 燃煤电厂多污染物排放清单及不确定性研究[D]. 浙江大学, 2015.&amp;nbsp;[5]Janssens-Maenhout, G. et al. HTAP_v2. 2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 15, 11411-11432.[6]Dou, X., Hong, J., Ciais, P. et al. Near-real-time global gridded daily CO2 emissions 2021. Sci Data 10, 69 (2023).[7]Berriel, Rodrigo F., et al. Monthly energy consumption forecast: A deep learning approach. 2017 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). IEEE, 2017.[8] 王英伟,马树才.基于ARIMA和LSTM混合模型的时间序列预测[J].计算机应用与软件,2021,38(02):291-298.[9]Kamalov, Firuz, et al. Powering Electricity Forecasting with Transfer Learning. Energies 17.3 (2024): 626.[10]Yang, Zhongsen, et al. Forecasting China's electricity generation using a novel structural adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model. Energy 278 (2023): 127824.</p><pub-id pub-id-type="doi"/></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>
