<?xml version="1.1" encoding="utf-8"?>
<article xsi:noNamespaceSchemaLocation="http://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.1/xsd/JATS-journalpublishing1-mathml3.xsd" dtd-version="1.1" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">SE</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Society and Economy</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn>2995-4959</issn><eissn>2995-4975</eissn><publisher><publisher-name>Art and Technology</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.61369/SE.2025110038</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title>气候变化背景下海洋基线与岛礁法律地位的再审视</title><url>https://artdesignp.com/journal/SE/3/11/10.61369/SE.2025110038</url><author>佟兆航</author><pub-date pub-type="publication-year"><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>3</volume><issue>11</issue><history><date date-type="pub"><published-time>2025-11-20</published-time></date></history><abstract>海平面上升正在动摇以自然地理为前提的海洋法秩序。本文在梳理UNCLOS关于正常/直线基线、岛屿&amp;mdash;岩礁区分与低潮高地效力的制度基础上，指出&amp;ldquo;基线随动&amp;rdquo;假设下出现的三重压力：管辖海域被动缩减、低高程岛礁可能&amp;ldquo;降格&amp;rdquo;、基点与界点不确定。在此背景下，本文评估&amp;ldquo;冻结基线&amp;rdquo;的规范依据与边界：以条约目的与后续实践提供解释空间，但应限于气候相关的自然变迁，排除人为填海等情形，并辅以坐标存档与可核验的科学证据。比较实践显示，小岛国与部分发达海洋国家形成支持稳定的合流；少数大国审慎观望。以南海为参照，本文主张在全球层面&amp;ldquo;总体支持、具体保留、积极塑造&amp;rdquo;，在区域层面推进&amp;ldquo;临时冻结/双冻结&amp;rdquo;与联合监测，在国内法层面固化已公布基线与证据标准，以规则供给与技术能力并举，最大限度维护中国海洋权益。</abstract><keywords>气候变化,海平面上升,海洋基线,岛屿—岩礁,低潮高地,冻结基线,UNCLOS,南海</keywords></article-meta></front><body/><back><ref-list><ref id="B1" content-type="article"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><p>[1] United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Article 7(2)[2] Massimo Starita, The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Baselines: A Question of Interpretation of the UNCLOS or Evolution of Customary Law?, QIL, Zoom-out, No. 91 (2022), p. 6.[3] FACCIO S. &amp;ldquo;Human Habitation or Economic Life of Their Own&amp;rdquo;: The Definition of Features Between History, Technology and the Law[J]. Liverpool Law Review, 2021, 42(1): 15&amp;ndash;33. DOI: 10.1007/s10991-020-09260-1.[4] Symmons C R. Maritime Zones from Islands and Rocks[C]. Singapore: CIL Roundtable, 2013: 27&amp;ndash;29.[5] 图1　1993&amp;mdash;2025年全球平均海平面变化（去季节信号）数据来源：University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group, 2025 Release 1[6] 图2　南海海平面长期上升趋势（1993&amp;mdash;2025，mm/年）数据来源：University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group, 2025 Release 1（trend_mm_per_year）[7] 王阳：《在稳定与公平之间：海平面上升对海洋边界的影响及其应对》，《中国海商法研究》2022年第4期，第17页.[8] Nilufer Oral, UNCLOS and Sea Level Rise, Marine Policy, 149 (2023): 105454.[9] Hugo Ignacio Llanos, Low-Tide Elevations: Reassessing Their Impact on Maritime Delimitation, Pace International Law Review, Vol. 14, Issue 2, 2002, pp. 263&amp;ndash;265.[10] Soons A H A. Some Observations on the &amp;ldquo;Ambulatory&amp;rdquo; Nature of the Normal Baseline[J]. Portuguese Yearbook of the Law of the Sea, 2024, 1: 5&amp;ndash;11.[11] Mara R. Wendebourg, &amp;ldquo;Interpreting the Law of the Sea in the Context of Sea-Level Rise: The Ambulatory Thesis and State Practice&amp;rdquo;, Journal of Environmental Law, Vol. 35, No. 3 (2023), pp. 499&amp;ndash;507, https://doi.org/10.1093/jel/eqad024.[12] 德国在其提交给 ILC 的官方意见中明确指出：&amp;ldquo;通过当代解释，德国认为《海洋法公约》允许冻结一旦依法确立、公布并存档的基线及海域界限。&amp;rdquo;德国：《海平面上升与国际法问题&amp;mdash;&amp;mdash;致国际法委员会的意见书》（Sea-level rise in relation to international law: Germany&amp;rsquo;s Submission to the ILC），第3页 .[13] 太平洋岛国论坛（PIF）领导人宣言 &amp;mdash;&amp;mdash;《海平面上升与海洋区不削减宣言》在该地区集体声明中，PIF 成员国领导人强调：在气候相关的海平面上升情形下，已确定并通报的海洋区划不应被削减。宣言中明确表述&amp;ldquo;我们意图维持我们的海域不因海平面上升而减少&amp;rdquo;并强调稳定性、法律确定性的重要性。 虽然这是一个地区组织的宣言，而非单一国家的正式外交声明，但它具有较强的官方性质，代表多个岛国的共同立场。太平洋岛国论坛秘书处：《关于气候变化导致海平面上升下维护海洋区的宣言》（Declaration on Preserving Maritime Zones in the Face of Climate Change-Related Sea-Level Rise），2021年8月6日，苏瓦：太平洋岛国论坛秘书处。[14] 《联合国海洋法公约》（United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982），第60条第8款；United Nations, United Nations Treaty Series, vol. 1833, p. 397.[15] Nil&amp;uuml;fer Oral, &amp;ldquo;International Law as an Adaptation Measure to Sea-Level Rise and Its Impacts on Islands and Offshore Features,&amp;rdquo; The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, Vol. 34, No. 3, 2019, pp. 430&amp;ndash;435.[16] 本表根据各国官方文件、国际组织声明与条约资料整理，主要来源包括：Australia&amp;ndash;Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty (2023)、PIF Declaration on Preserving Maritime Zones (2021)、Germany Submission to the ILC on Sea-Level Rise in Relation to International Law (2023)、UK Written Statement HCWS171 (2024) 等。[17] India, Statement (Cluster II) to the International Law Commission on sea-level rise ( 未经明确支持冻结基线，表达参与讨论意向 )[18] International Law Commission, Final Report of the Study Group on Sea-level Rise in Relation to International Law (2025), 关于各国在第六委员会与 ILC 讨论中的表态与争论（国家普遍表达意见但未达共识）[19] 《牛津国际公法百科全书》（Oxford Public International Law）载 Alex G Oude Elferink, &amp;ldquo;Artificial Islands, Installations and Structures&amp;rdquo;, Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law (2024 年 7 月更新 )，指出人工岛屿不享有岛屿法律地位，也不得影响领海、专属经济区或大陆架的划界（Arts 60 (8)、259 UNCLOS）[20] 张文显主编，《南海仲裁案法律评析及后续应对笔谈》，《中国法学》2017年第6期。[21] 马博.南海仲裁案对&amp;ldquo;岛礁建设&amp;rdquo;的裁决评析及后续法律问题研究[J].边界与海洋研究,2017,2(04):54-67.[22] 陈曦笛 . 海平面上升对海上地物国际法地位的影响：规则演进与中国因应[J].交大法学,2022,(03):117-132.[23] 刘琳.中国与东盟国家南海危机管控探析[J].国际问题研究,2025,(01):47-71+139.[24] 王秀卫.区域海洋环境合作对南海低敏感领域合作的借鉴与启示[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2019,(01):38-43.[25] 高之国 . 南海地区安全合作机制的回顾与展望&amp;mdash;&amp;mdash;兼议设立南海合作理事会的问题[J].边界与海洋研究,2016,1(02):5-10+2.[26] Reg&amp;iacute; Rodr&amp;iacute;guez, Artificial Islands in the South China Sea: Territorial Disputes in the Area (Springer, 2023) 113&amp;ndash;114.[27] Vivien Wendebourg, Interpreting the Law of the Sea in the Context of Sea-Level Rise: The Ambulatory Thesis and State Practice (2023) Ocean Development &amp;amp; International Law 503&amp;ndash;504.[28] Clive Schofield and David Freestone, The Legal Regime of Islands after the South China Sea Award&amp;mdash;Orphaned or Influential? (2024) Ocean Development &amp;amp; International Law 568&amp;ndash;578.</p><pub-id pub-id-type="doi"/></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>
