<?xml version="1.1" encoding="utf-8"?>
<article xsi:noNamespaceSchemaLocation="http://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.1/xsd/JATS-journalpublishing1-mathml3.xsd" dtd-version="1.1" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ASDS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Applied Statistics and Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn>3066-8433</issn><eissn>3066-8441</eissn><publisher><publisher-name>Art and Technology</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.61369/ASDS.2026050001</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title>逆境中基金经理的投资能力与风险管控研究
—— 以开放式偏股型公募基金为例</title><url>https://artdesignp.com/journal/ASDS/2/5/10.61369/ASDS.2026050001</url><author>王晓晖,许林</author><pub-date pub-type="publication-year"><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>2</volume><issue>5</issue><history><date date-type="pub"><published-time>2026-05-20</published-time></date></history><abstract>基金经理能否在逆境中创造价值、控制风险，是衡量其投资能力的关键。本文基于438只开放式偏股型公募基金的季度数据为样本，采用逆境收益率衡量基金经理逆境投资能力，并通过构建基金经理独立投资能力这一中介变量，实证考察了逆境投资能力对基金净值暴跌风险的影响机制。研究发现：首先，基金经理逆境投资能力与基金业绩呈显著正相关，与净值暴跌风险呈显著负相关；其次，中介效应检验表明，独立投资能力在逆境投资能力影响暴跌风险的过程中发挥显著的中介作用。本研究结论为投资者甄选基金产品、评估基金经理真实能力提供了重要的决策参考。</abstract><keywords>逆境投资能力,净值暴跌风险,独立投资能力</keywords></article-meta></front><body/><back><ref-list><ref id="B1" content-type="article"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><p>[1]Carhart M M.On persistence in mutual fund performance[J].Journal of Finance,1997,52(1):57&amp;minus;82.[2]Busse J A,Goyal A,Wahal S.Performance and persistence in institutional investment management[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(2):765-790.[3]Grinblatt M, Titman S, Wermers R. Momentum investment strategies,portfolio performance,and herding:A study of mutual fund behavior[J].The American economic review,1995:1088-1105.[4]Mattijn Cremers, Miguel A. Ferreira , Pedro Matos , Laura Starks. Indexing and active fund management: International evidence[J].Journal of Financial Economics, 2016:539-560.[5]Berk J B,Green R C.Mutual fund flows and performance in rational markets[J].Journal of political economy,2004,112(6):1269-1295.[6]Hoberg G,Kumar N,Prabhala N.Mutual fund competition,managerial skill,and alphapersistence[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2017,31(5):1896-1929.[7] 赵秀娟, 程刚, 汪寿阳. 基金经理的运气是否比能力更重要?[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(05):834-840.[8] 焉昕雯. 基金经理初次任职时点、过度自信与基金业绩[J]. 投资研究，2020，39（05）：106-124.[9] 侯伟相. 基金投资行为与业绩、能力以及净值暴跌风险研究[D]. 对外经济贸易大学,2018.[10] 丁春霞, 王唯先. 风险溢价、非流动性风险预警与基金净值暴跌风险&amp;mdash;&amp;mdash; 基于开放式股票型基金的研究[J]. 金融论坛,2018(08):55-67.[11] 许林, 张晓华, 钱崇秀. 基金经理社会网络、业绩排名与净值暴跌风险[J]. 中央财经大学学报,2020(11):26-42.[12]Glode V,Green R C.Information spillovers and performance persistence for hedge funds[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2011,101(1):1&amp;minus;17.[13] 胡赫男, 吴世农. 我国基金羊群行为: 测度与影响因素[J]. 经济学家,2006(06):116-125.[14]Zheng Sun,Ashley W.Wang,Lu Zheng.Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat:Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2018,53(5):2199-2225..</p><pub-id pub-id-type="doi"/></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>
